A powerful tropical cyclone, Cyclone Biparjoy, is approaching the coasts of India and Pakistan in the North Indian Ocean. This cyclone, equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane, reached its peak intensity on Tuesday with maximum winds of around 105 mph (90 knots) in the northeast Arabian Sea



According to the India Meteorological Department, the storm is expected to make landfall near the India-Pakistan border on Thursday around midday local time, accompanied by sustained winds of 80 mph (70 knots). Biparjoy is anticipated to bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and a dangerous storm surge, which is an increase in ocean water level above the normal dry land at the coast.




Cyclone warnings have been issued for the Saurashtra and Kutch coasts of India's Gujarat state, stretching from near the Pakistan border to the Gulf of Khambhat. Storm surge warnings are also in effect for much of the same area.




Although Cyclone Biparjoy reached Category 2-equivalent strength, it is projected to weaken slightly as it approaches land due to hostile high-altitude winds disrupting its organisation. When it makes landfall, its maximum sustained winds are expected to decrease to 90 mph (80 knots), equivalent to Category 1 strength.




The population density in the projected landfall area is relatively low compared to other regions in South Asia. However, the region near the mouth of the Indus River, which lies close to the storm's path, is low-lying and susceptible to storm surge.




There are important energy infrastructure and major port locations in the region, with several larger cities situated on or near the Gulf of Kutch to the south of the projected landfall point. These areas could experience significant inundation from the storm surge.




Experts predict that Biparjoy's landfall will bring tides of 2 to 3 metres high, posing a significant threat to coastal settlements such as the low-lying areas of Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, and Morbi.




In addition to strong winds and storm surge, the cyclone is expected to bring heavy rainfall. Biparjoy is moving at a slow forward speed, which will prolong the duration of heavy rain. Even after landfall, there is a risk of excessive rainfall, particularly near the coast.




Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are likely along and south of the Indo-Gangetic Plain, extending into the Great Indian Desert. This could lead to flooding, and there is also a possibility of landslides in elevated areas, especially as the remnants of the storm reach the foothills of the Himalayas.




Tropical cyclones are relatively uncommon in the northern Arabian Sea, and they tend to weaken significantly before making landfall.




Biparjoy has joined a small group of storms in the North Indian Ocean that have produced 20 or more units of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which measures the intensity and duration of a storm. It has also generated the highest ACE of any June storm in the region.




The last storm to strike the vicinity of Biparjoy was Cyclone Vayu in 2019, which made landfall as a weak tropical depression, causing some flooding. In 2010, Cyclone Phet, after striking Oman, entered the northern Arabian Sea and made landfall south of Karachi as a tropical depression.




In 2001, an unnamed storm followed a somewhat similar track to Biparjoy but weakened significantly upon landfall. The storm resulted in the reported loss of hundreds of fishermen.